GBP weekly forecast

The Pound started the week flat against other currencies, despite the Confederation of British Industry's latest industrial trends survey surpassing expectations. On Wednesday, however, the Pound came under pressure following the release of the CBI's latest distributive trades survey.

The index revealed an unexpected drop in retail sales in June, heightening concerns that the UK's economic recovery might be stalling.

Friday saw the UK's final GDP reading for the first quarter was revised upward from 0.6% to 0.7%, reflecting the strongest growth rate since the last quarter of 2021. Despite the positive reading, Sterling struggled to attract support as a cautious market mood weighed on the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound.

Looking forward, the primary drivers for the Pound exchange rate this week will be the UK's upcoming election and several scheduled data releases.

On Monday, the final manufacturing PMIs for June are anticipated to continue to grow, potentially providing Sterling with a robust beginning to the week.

On Wednesday, the crucial services sector PMI survey is also projected to remain in expansion territory, which is expected to strengthen GBP exchange rates during mid-week trading.

On Thursday, Sterling is expected to see movement with the UK's general election. Any unexpected results could introduce significant volatility into the Pound by the end of the week.

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